The global aviation industry enters the final months of 2025 on a cautiously optimistic footing. Passenger demand remains strong, fleets are stretched but stable, and airlines continue to prove remarkably agile in adapting to geopolitical and economic turbulence.
Dave Williams, Director of Leasing at ACC Aviation, a leading provider of ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, Insurance), Charter and Consulting services has been working with his team to analyse market performance so far this year.
“Despite supply chain bottlenecks, aircraft delivery delays, and escalating costs, the sector’s long-term trajectory is one of steady recovery and reinvention. The underlying message from industry leaders in the airline, leasing and ACMI sectors is clear: aviation is navigating an uncertain world from a position of strength.”
Global traffic continues to climb, with IATA reporting a 4.6% increase in total passenger demand and an 86% global load factor – a record high. International travel is the primary growth engine, up 6.6% year-on-year, led by a 9.8% surge in Asia-Pacific. Domestic markets remain stable but more subdued.
“Airlines have managed capacity carefully, keeping load factors high but margins are thin,” observes Williams. “Industry profit per seat averaged $6.40 in 2024, reflecting rising operational costs and limited pricing flexibility. While major carriers such as Ryanair and Singapore Airlines maintain strong profitability, smaller operators and start-ups continue to feel the squeeze.”
Aircraft and engine shortages remain persistent. Delays from Airbus and Boeing have forced operators to keep older jets in service longer, driving up lease rates for mid-life assets. Lessors and airlines are increasingly investing in spare parts inventories – and in some cases dismantling young aircraft for components – to ensure operational resilience.
Maintenance turnaround times for engines and heavy checks remain double pre-pandemic levels, with limited improvement expected before 2027. Airlines are relying on power-by-the-hour (PBH) programmes to mitigate maintenance risk.
“The result is a fleet landscape defined by pragmatism: more aircraft flying longer, a shift toward dependable mid-life assets, and hybrid leasing models emerging as a hedge against uncertainty,” says Williams.
The aviation industry is contending with a convergence of structural and geopolitical pressures: global instability, from ongoing conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia; trade and tariff uncertainty, as governments reconsider industrial policies and trade alliances; supply chain fragility, still impacting parts availability and production rhythms; rapid technological change, with AI and automation transforming operations and maintenance; the sustainability challenge, as the journey toward net zero remains costly and uneven; labour and skills shortages, particularly across engineering and flight operations.
“Yet, amid these complexities, the industry’s core strengths – resilience, innovation, and global demand – continue to drive forward momentum,” remarks Williams.
According to ACC Aviation, 2024 and 2025 have seen a surge in network expansion. Airlines launched 3,593 new routes last year, with over half connecting previously unserved destinations. The United States led in route additions, while Kuala Lumpur Airport saw the highest number of new services. Low-cost carriers (LCCs ) dominated growth, with the Airbus A320 the most common aircraft type on new routes. Despite a handful of airline bankruptcies or Chapter 11 scenarios – including Play and Spirit – the market remains balanced, with new entrants and alliances maintaining competitive dynamism.
Fleet forecasts remain bullish. The global commercial fleet is expected to double by 2043, adding over 23,000 aircraft. Low-cost carriers are projected to capture around 50% of global seat capacity, solidifying their dominance. Next-generation narrowbodies, particularly the A321LR/XLR, will account for roughly 25% of all new orders over the coming decade. These aircraft enable longer routes with lower fuel burn, opening new market opportunities for both full-service and hybrid carriers.
The ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance, Insurance) sector has experienced one of its most turbulent and dynamic years since COVID. Described by Williams as a “rollercoaster,” 2025 has seen extreme volatility in capacity, pricing, and geographic balance.
“Following the post-COVID boom, 2024 marked the peak of the ACMI market, with activity surpassing one million block hours for the first time. Early 2025 began on a strong footing, but by Q1, signs of overcapacity emerged as airlines – particularly in Europe – delayed summer decisions and scrutinised yields more closely,” he explains.
“By Q2, ACMI providers responded with greater pricing flexibility and shorter-term contracts, triggering a market reset. Data tracked jointly by ACC Aviation and ch-aviation shows 2025 performance 14% ahead of 2024 year-to-date, setting the stage for another record year – albeit one defined by volatility rather than smooth growth.”
ACC Aviation’s research affirms that Europe remains the largest ACMI market, accounting for around 51% of block hours in 2025, though this share is expected to ease as Africa and South America show accelerating demand. Growth in Asia is also emerging late in the year, with carriers such as IndiGo and SpiceJet exploring flexible ACMI solutions. Africa continues to expand through operators including Royal Air Maroc, Tunisair, Air Algérie, and some Nigerian carriers.
Narrowbody aircraft dominate the ACMI market, led by the Airbus A320-200ceo, followed by the Boeing 737-800. The A330-200/-300 continues to lead in widebody ACMI operations, while the 747 freighter remains a staple of the cargo segment. Regional jets and turboprops have remained steady and are expanding in Oceania, where the Embraer E190 is the top-performing type.
Williams continues, “Market behaviour through 2025 has been volatile. After a quiet early summer, activity rebounded in July, with rates climbing, but this is tapering off as we hit Q4.”
Looking to 2026, ACMI customers are increasingly cautious, booking later and focusing on cost efficiency. Yields and profitability remain under pressure, while some low-cost carriers attempting to pivot into ACMI operations have struggled. Nonetheless, Asia and Africa continue to offer new growth frontiers, and several ACMI suppliers have already secured multi-year contracts, suggesting growing maturity in this flexible segment.
As Williams points out, “The central question for the sector remains: what is the right size for the ACMI market? With capacity ebbing and flowing in response to geopolitical and economic shocks, the next phase will demand disciplined growth, strategic partnerships, and ongoing agility.”
As the aviation industry moves into 2026, several pressing questions remain. Will aircraft delivery delays and supply chain constraints ease? Can MRO capacity improve and reduce turnaround times? How will tariff policies and global trade shifts affect fleet economics? Will labour shortages in pilots and engineers begin to stabilise? Can ACMI leasing sustain its momentum amid pricing pressure? Will low oil prices continue to offer relief to operating margins? And will global conflicts further disrupt market equilibrium?
ACC Aviation discerns that the industry’s hallmark resilience continues to define the post-pandemic era. Despite persistent headwinds, the aviation sector is balancing innovation with pragmatism – managing risk through diversification, flexible capacity, and new technology.
The message across the sector, from lessors to ACMI operators, is consistent: growth must now be smart, not just strong. “The industry isn’t waiting for normality to return – it’s redefining what normal looks like,” Williams concludes.
About ACC Aviation
Founded in 2002 as an aircraft leasing specialist, ACC Aviation delivers market-leading solutions across aviation consultancy services, ACMI leasing, and air charter. Through an international office network spanning Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, and Asia, it provides bespoke aviation solutions to clients across the globe. Its success is built on the strength and depth of its relationships within the aviation industry. ACC Aviation delivers superior solutions to a diverse and growing client base through continued investment in developing and maintaining these partnerships, with a persistent focus on innovation. Visit: ACCAviation.com
The company is a Financial Times Top 1000 ranked European company.
Featured image credited to ACC Aviation
