Although financial and personnel pressures have eased slightly, global aerospace supply chains “still face major challenges,” as ongoing disruptions impact production and rate ramp-ups, and as gaps remain unresolved including for certain critical components. A key consideration in the second half of 2026 is how the Middle East conflict develops and its impact on aircraft production.

So says a survey conducted by global consultancy Roland Berger in collaboration with the aerospace industry associations of France (GIFAS), Germany (BDLI) and the UK (ADS).

Now in its fourth year and published this year in advance of both the biennial ILA Berlin trade show and the Farnborough International Airshow, the annual aerospace supply chain health assessment for 2026 was carried out in January and February 2026 and features input from 95 companies.

Roughly 80% of respondents support the large commercial aircraft and/or defense segment, followed by those involved in helicopters, regional aircraft, business jets, space and advanced air mobility. Some 50% of respondents cited aerostructures, equipment and systems or engines as their most important procurement categories, and almost a third operate on EBIT margins of less than 5%. “As such, the survey is representative of the wider industry in all three of the countries in focus,” the Roland Berger joint report states.

On a positive front, more than 70% of companies feel “well or very well prepared” for production ramp ups. That’s notable given that Airbus, Embraer and Boeing are in the process of increasing production for their best-selling commercial programs.

But production capacity and upskilling remain a challenge, and 55% of players still face “sizable issues — especially to service rising demand for all aircraft parts,” according to the survey.

Those companies who are facing material disruptions cited longer lead times and the limited availability of raw materials and semi-finished goods (e.g. forgings needed for aircraft engines and landing gear, and electronic components), followed by quality problems relating to a lack of experienced staff and protracted lead times for services (such as testing, surface treatment and finishing). Respondents also identified a constraint around fasteners for aerostructures.

Numerous suppliers highlighted indirect impacts on the demand side, with Roland Berger saying in its analysis that:

OEMs have a tendency to adapt their production rates or delay orders, as they often lack input parts and components from other companies that are required for the same assemblies. This leads to disruptions on the demand side even for companies that are able to satisfy OEMs’ supply requirements.

A member of the BDLI executive board, Diehl Aviation CEO Dr. Jörg Schuler received a short debrief of the survey in advance of the Aircraft Interiors Expo in Hamburg in April, telling RGN at the show that the wider report is in line with what Diehl Group is experiencing as a defense manufacturer and a nose-to-tail aircraft interiors specialist.

“It’s getting better on the large scale, but there are still supply chain disruptions, and when you have one, they are very severe,” Dr. Schuler notes. Many suppliers still face challenges, and Diehl Aviation is “still not where we want to be in terms of very stable, sustainable supply chains or resilience. It will take some time.”

The wild card

Geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, are creating uncertainty, and have moved to the top of survey respondents’ list of concerns about future supply chain risks, followed by cybersecurity threats and the threat of material shortages.

“Taken together, all three of these factors underscore companies’ need to develop supply chain setups that are more resilient in the face of multiple potential crises,” states the report, adding that more than half of participants “are looking to alter their supply chain setup, mainly by diversifying suppliers.”

In the near-term, supply chains are slightly disrupted by the Middle East conflict, but not as critically as seen during the COVID pandemic, Dr. Schuler tells RGN. Oil prices are expected to remain elevated for a while which will translate into more expensive material like plastic, he says. “So, we will get hit again on material prices. That’s for sure.”

If the conflict lasts for a long duration, “then the impact might be completely different” as it will depress travel to the Middle East, and Middle Eastern countries have a strong backlog of Airbus and Boeing aircraft, Dr. Schuler points out, adding:

If it lasts for long, then obviously it knocks down to the supply chain, to our suppliers, which I hope will not happen because we cannot afford another slowdown of aircraft deliveries.

For its part, Roland Berger outlines three scenarios in the report:

1. In the case of a quick resolution, no meaningful impact on aircraft production is expected. The conflict has so far primarily affected logistics, forcing some suppliers to shift from maritime transport to more expensive airfreight, increasing costs but not yet materially disrupting aircraft deliveries.
2. A more significant medium-term risk could arise from price increases and reduced availability of specific chemical products sourced from the Middle East. This may only affect production several months later through lead-times and inflation risks.
3. In a prolonged or escalating conflict scenario, declining airline profitability could have implications for production rates and investment decisions.

A “prolonged and intensifying conflict” is defined as lasting more than 24 months, and would see survival and liquidity management “take precedence over fleet renewal, leading to widespread order postponements and/or the cancellation of deliveries. In this eventuality, a substantial reduction in aircraft production rates would be expected.”

Hedging in the US

Companies are seeking to insulate themselves. One-third of those surveyed have “already changed or are planning to change their internal production setup and footprint” including by relocating production to lower-cost countries, or opening US sites (or backup sites elsewhere).

Diehl is in fact among the firms eyeing fresh possibilities in the US. “Whenever we would have the opportunity and could hedge the dollar through a US-based activity, we would go for it,” Dr. Schuler reveals.

Counting Airbus, Boeing, Embraer and Bombardier — and all airlines in the Americas — as partners, the Laupheim, Germany-headquartered firm has long had a presence in the US, including in Everett, Washington; Sterrett, Alabama; and Charleston, South Carolina. A Customer Collaboration Space at its Everett logistics support site near Seattle ensures that its clients and partners can experience Diehl products up close in a specially designed multifunctional space.

Diehl Aviation has room to grow, including in Alabama, but if US expansion were to take the shape of M&A activity, “obviously it depends where they sit,” Dr. Schuler says of any potential partner.

Given fast-changing developments in the Middle East, the joint Roland Berger, GIFAS, BDLI and ADS report concludes that there can be no definite forecast on the impact of aircraft production.

“To avoid severe air traffic disruptions, airline bankruptcies and aircraft production impacts, it is crucial for governments across the globe to secure an adequate supply of jet fuel and provide financial aid to struggling airlines. Air traffic growth has proven to be crisis-resilient in the long term. The European aviation industry should, therefore, not be deflected from its growth ambitions by a crisis that will hopefully be over sooner rather than later,” it says.

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Featured image credited to John Walton