Though Panasonic Avionics has ploughed meaningful spend into geostationary satellite capacity, and as a result is enjoying improved NPS scores for its legacy GEO-focused inflight connectivity solution, company vice president, connectivity business unit John Wade reckons that a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satcom-only model — possibly supported by two electronically steered antennas (ESAs) in different frequency bands — may ultimately be the future of IFC in commercial aviation.
Under this scenario, GEO satellites would either not be used at all for IFC or would simply be relegated to supporting broadcast TV.
“People who are saying ‘we need GEO for hub cities’ I think are overstating the congestion issues we’re going to see. I don’t think they’re going to be there,” suggested Wade in reference to the LEO congestion expected around large metropolitan areas.
“And so my view is, in the future, once we sort out the coverage issues, then I think LEO-only becomes very, very viable. And certainly, if you think about the fact that a LEO-only terminal, a LEO-only antenna is pretty darn small, I don’t see any reason why you can’t have a Ku LEO antenna and a Ka LEO antenna on the same aircraft.”
Coverage issues include flying over Russia or China, where LEO services are challenged for geopolitical reasons.
So, RGN asked Wade, in time might we see Eutelsat OneWeb Ku and Telesat Lightspeed Ka service on the same aircraft?
“I see no reason why that couldn’t happen in the future,” said Wade. He stressed that Panasonic — which in the nearer term is bringing multi-orbit LEO/GEO IFC to market powered by Eutelsat OneWeb LEO and Panasonic’s GEO network, using Gilat/Stellar Blu’s Sidewinder ESA — remains agnostic in terms of both frequency and orbit.
Wade’s comments echo the sentiments made by Seamless Air Alliance thought leader Peter Lemme, who told RGN at the Aircraft Interiors Expo (AIX) in Hamburg that: “I think there’s a possibility of having two LEO networks on airplanes, in fact, you could argue in the end state, that might be the most likely scenario … something like Starlink (Ku) and Kuiper (Ka).”
Capacity constraints and legal coverage have been a concern, he noted, as some nations require that traffic be routed through their country. Moreover, “hybrid terminals that can embrace both LEO and GEO at the same time” are particularly compelling, given how you can route certain traffic over each pipe, said Lemme.
But, he added: “There is a dramatic difference in Internet browsing between a LEO network versus a GEO network. It is a profound difference and we think that once the marketplace starts to see the benefits and responsiveness of LEO, they’re not going to want to go back to GEO.”
Multi-orbit breaks cover
Like Panasonic, Intelsat is presently pursuing multi-orbit IFC with an ESA engineered in partnership with Stellar Blu and BAE Systems (formerly Ball Aerospace). However, unlike Panasonic, which has yet to announce airline customers for its nextgen offering, Intelsat has already publicly disclosed an 800-tail backlog, and counts Air Canada, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Aerolíneas Argentinas, and Japan Airlines as customers.
Indeed, PaxEx.aero is reporting that the first commercial regional jets to be fitted with Intelsat’s multi-orbit system have left the installation facility and appear to be headed into revenue service. This meshes with the timeline provided by Intelsat head of commercial aviation Dave Bijur, who recently revealed to RGN that the firm has secured a new RJ supplemental type certification (beyond its CRJ700 testbed) and that equipped aircraft “could fly as soon as this summer”.
However, Bijur does not agree with Wade or Lemme’s assessment that a LEO-only world — possibly supported by a hybrid of two ESAs in different bands — may ultimately be the future of inflight connectivity, if coverage issues are addressed.
“I don’t believe that network hotspots are solved by more LEO; they suffer the same problem as the LEO satellite right next to it,” Bijur told RGN.
Elaborating at AIX, Bijur said:
What do you think about China? I mean I don’t think that makes any sense. And there’s lots of reasons for that, not just because we have GEO assets, but because the very architecture of LEO prevents it from addressing network hotspots. And I’m not sure why that’s complicated.
The demand coming from the planet is unequal. Would you agree that the demand in the middle of the South Indian Ocean and the demand over New York City are different, of course you would, yet capacity is the same from LEO networks. That’s a fundamental mismatch in supply and demand that is only addressed through a multi-orbit system. Just putting more LEO, putting two or three LEO antennas on the same airplane doesn’t solve that problem.
LEO-only is here
Single-band LEO IFC, as supported by a single LEO constellation, is of course already a thing. SpaceX has rolled out its Starlink Ku-band LEO service on JSX, and is in the process of doing so for Hawaiian Airlines.
Hawaiian’s install features two ESAs (albeit for the same Ku-band constellation). Each is capable of transmit and receive, and the two-versus-one configuration is a bandwidth play. Other Starlink airline customers include airBaltic, Qatar Airways and newly announced WestJet.
Separately, Hughes Network Systems is gearing up to launch LEO-only IFC in commercial aviation with Eutelsat OneWeb service and its own ESA.
And so, RGN put the question to Wade: does Panasonic see a role for single LEO-only IFC in commercial aviation?
“In some applications, yeah, I think so,” he replied. “If you’re not worried about coverage issues anymore and you’re confident about capacity, I don’t know that there is a clear role for GEO other than perhaps broadcast TV. You can do broadcast TV very efficiently over GEO because you can use like one beam for a very large area. So that might be a use case where GEO stays relevant. But I increasingly personally at least believe that we may be looking at a LEO-only world in the future.”
Indeed, he predicts that “by the end of this decade, we’re probably looking at largely LEO-only installation for IFC.”
Three ESAs?
SpaceX doesn’t flinch at the notion of adding a third ESA for larger aircraft. But Wade reckons that two is a sensible end point, such as the hybrid Ku/Ka LEO-only offering he described.
“I can see the need for two terminals. One for Ku, one for Ka. Beyond that, I tend to agree with you that the maintenance becomes an issue and also solid-state ESA antennas should be much more reliable than we’ve ever seen historically for traditional gimbaled antennas,” said the Panasonic executive.
Intelsat’s Bijur has a different take: “[I] don’t know that’s gonna work everywhere, A380 maybe. There is not that many of those around. Multiple antennas on one airplane could work. I can see it too. But I don’t know that a LEO/LEO config is a great idea.”
Eutelsat OneWeb LEO is expected to debut in aviation shortly. In commercial aviation, it will support Intelsat’s multi-orbit IFC and in time, Panasonic’s, each using a single ESA.
Amazon’s Project Kuiper Ka-band LEO constellation, meanwhile, is on the horizon, with the firm presently ramping up satellite production and testing in Kirkland, Washington in anticipation of offering initial broadband services in 2025, albeit later than planned. But to date, Amazon has not disclosed its explicit plan for the aviation/IFC market (will it go direct or via integrators?), assuring RGN that it will follow up when that position changes.
Related Articles:
- How Hughes is differentiating with its LEO aero ESA
- Viasat favors own IFC kit for interoperability of Ka satellite assets
- WestJet pivots to Starlink to support free Wi-Fi for loyalty members
- Airbus lays out ultimate vision for connected aircraft
- Safran Ku ESA terminal for Airbus to ensure gate-to-gate IFC with 5G
- Gilat to acquire Stellar Blu Solutions as part of IFC growth strategy
- Panasonic multi-orbit IFC nears entry into airframer linefit catalogs
- Japan Airlines taps linefit Intelsat multi-orbit IFC for 737 MAXs
- NetForecast reveals LEO vs GEO satellite IFC QoE performance data
