Analysis from IBA, the leading aviation intelligence and advisory company, shows global airline passenger capacity grew by 2.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026, despite significant regional disruption.
Capacity in the Middle East fell by 14% over the same period, as airspace closures and reduced operations weighed on international markets and constrained overall growth.
Most regions recorded solid expansion, with Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa growing between 4% and 8% year-on-year. However, this was offset by weaker performance in North America, where capacity rose by just 1.2% to 611 billion Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs), highlighting a widening gap between higher-growth and more mature markets.
Image: IBA
Domestic markets continue to drive the recovery, with capacity increasing by 3.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.7% for international travel. Domestic capacity is now 20% above 2019 levels, while international capacity growth over the same period is lower at 9.5%, reflecting a more gradual long-haul recovery.
Image: IBA
China remains a key growth driver, with capacity 9% above Q1 2025 and 25% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Strong domestic demand continues to underpin this growth, while international capacity has steadily recovered.
Image: IBA
Supply constraints continue to limit expansion, with 271 aircraft delivered in Q1 2026, down 3% year-on-year and 22% compared to 2018. Narrowbody aircraft deliveries are down 5% YoY at 215 aircraft for Q1 2026, with Airbus A320neo family deliveries averaging 27 aircraft per month in Q1 2026, compared with 38 per month for the Boeing 737 MAX.
To read IBA’s analysis in full, click here
About IBA
IBA delivers the best of all worlds — deep aviation consultancy expertise and cutting-edge, actionable data insights, all delivered by a proven, expert team with a strong customer focus.
An independent, innovative and forward-thinking business, IBA has over 35 years of heritage and experience in aviation. Having won the Sustainable Technology award for its IBA NetZero platform in 2024 & 2023 and for its Carbon Emissions Calculator in 2022 and being named ‘Appraiser of the Year’ by its clients for five years, IBA prides itself on its integrity, fierce independence, and continual innovation.
The key to IBA’s success is its people — some of the best in the industry, based in multiple locations across the globe — real experts who are passionate about aviation and go the extra mile for their clients.
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Featured image credited to Jeremy Dwyer-Lindgren
